WORLD STEEL CONSUMPTION FORECAST TO BE OVER 1470 MILLION TONNES IN 2014

Global consumption of finished steel in 2010 is expected to be approaching 1260 million tonnes. This represents an increase of 160 million tonnes on the year earlier figure. By 2014, we expect the total to reach 1477 million tonnes – up by 220 million tonnes on the outturn this year.

The recovery is now in place in many parts of the world. However, the upturn is anticipated to be quite modest in the industrialised countries. Bank lending is likely to be quite tightly controlled over the next few years. The spectre of another banking crisis looms large in these countries. Moreover, there are fears of a double dip recession in the United States and EU which is affecting confidence in future growth rates. Our forecasts assume that a downturn will be avoided.

A large proportion of the future growth in steel demand will come from China, India, South America and the Middle East. Several other Asian states are likely to show strong upward trends. The surge in consumption which developed for much of the last decade is not expected to be repeated. We believe that the lessons of the past have been heeded. Overheated economies in Asia are being restrained and profligate bank lending is being contained.

Moreover, many of the stimulus packages introduced by governments around the world are being withdrawn. The exception may be in the United States where the housing crisis continues to weaken sentiment for growth in the economy.

Source: MEPS- Global Iron & Steel Production to 2014