THE MEPS EU AVERAGE STEEL PRICE UP 2.5 PERCENT IN JANUARY

In late December 2011, the major European flat products producers announced their intentions to lift basis values for February 2012 rollings by between €20 and €40 per tonne. Certainly, conditions are right for a rise since domestic capacity has been reduced, third country offers remain largely uncompetitive and there is a restocking requirement. However, the difficult economic situation is causing customers to remain cautious about the tonnages that they are prepared to purchase.

In Germany, overall demand is good compared to other parts of the EU, with machinery manufacturing and automotive performing well. A number of quarterly contract buyers have concluded business for the whole of period one at the prices reported by MEPS in December. However, the mills are trying to lift spot market basis values for February and March production. Market participants consider that a small increase might prove possible because production cutbacks and a lack of third country imports have limited the quantities available in the marketplace. Moreover, for fiscal reasons, a number of companies drastically reduced inventories towards the end of last year and now need to restock.

Negotiations are taking place on a monthly basis for first quarter business in France. Producers achieved some small increases in late December for January deliveries. They are now pushing for more advances for February, with discussions still taking place. Mills have reduced their output significantly, which may help to support further strengthening. There has been an improvement in demand from stockholders who have had to refill their, virtually empty, inventories.

It has been a quiet start to 2012 in the Italian steel market, with everyone concerned about how the budget cuts and higher taxes, introduced by the new government, will affect demand. Limitations on credit are also becoming of paramount importance. However, it appears that the bottom has been reached, as far as prices are concerned, as the market reacts to recent production cuts, higher scrap costs and a lack of foreign competition.

Many UK companies are now living off very low inventories but buyers are proceeding cautiously. However, there seems to be an acceptance that any price movements will be positive. Business transacted just before Christmas resulted in some small increases and more are likely later in the quarter.

Spanish consumption continues to show weakness from a variety of end-user sectors. In addition, restrictions on credit are not helping the market situation. Local producers have been slow to clarify their actual target prices for period one. Service centres’ inventories are very depleted as buyers order on a weekly basis. Market confidence remains weak and this is adversely affecting steel demand.

Source: MEPS - European Steel Review - Also See: EU Steel Prices Online