STEEL PRICES IN DEVELOPING MARKETS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN SEPTEMBER

Turkish long product quotations stabilised in September. The upward movement in semi-finished steel and scrap values has been less pronounced. In contrast, export prices have fallen slightly owing to weak demand. Negotiated prices have, however, continued to rise in the domestic flat products market. Erdemir has been trying to fulfil its delayed third quarter supply. The mill is not accepting any new orders for galvanised and cold rolled materials until December.

The UAE market is now relatively quiet. Sentiment is mixed amongst local steel merchants. The more positive are forecasting improved trading activity at the end of Ramadan. The emergence of material from Mainland China has checked the spike in import values. Local rebar producers have raised their domestic offers in response to higher billet and scrap values.

Sentiment amongst Indian flat product steelmakers remains upbeat. Domestic offers for flat rolled material have risen once more. Further increases are likely to follow, as the country enters its pre-festive season. This is a period when demand for consumer durables is traditionally strong. There are also positive vibes being felt in the long products segment. The effective prices of construction steel have stabilised. Previously negotiated deals were on a downward trajectory. Orders from the building sector are now expected to harden.

The South African steel industry is still troubled by weak economic fundamentals. Underlying demand is still driven primarily by state-funded capital projects. Private buyers are still largely absent despite the government’s stimulus measures. In spite of the economic woes, nearly all distributors have raised their basis prices. Further adjustments are expected next month. ArcelorMittal South Africa (AMSA) has announced its flat steel basis prices would rise by as much as 4 percent in October. In contrast, long product basis values are unchanged.

The Brazilian steel industry has continued to benefit from the government’s stimulus strategy. The measures have primarily focused on large-scale public infrastructure projects, reduced duty on new cars and a series of tax breaks. Healthier economic fundamentals have made internal producers bullish. This month, Usiminas, CSN and ArcelorMittal raised their domestic flat steel products prices by an average of 13 percent. Long product values are stable.

Plant utilisation rates at Russian steelmakers are on average approaching 75 percent. In September, most of the major mills persisted with their August activity levels. Nevertheless, Severstal announced plans for a substantial increase in output. The producer will raise supply by 13 percent to 850,000 metric tonnes. The Ukrainian steel industry is also showing signs of recovery. Finished production in August increased by 6.3 percent to 2,415,000 tonnes compared to July. However, shortages in the local market and low inventories are now starting to propel domestic prices higher.

The Mexican market is, so far, exhibiting no positive signs of recovery. Sentiment is subdued amongst end-users and this is echoed in low sales volumes. Manufacturers are still waiting for US consumer spending to rebound. Local steel producers have left the majority of their basis prices unchanged.

Source: MEPS - Developing Markets Steel Review - click here for a free sample copy

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