MEPS APRIL NORTH AMERICAN BENCHMARK HOT ROLLED STEEL PRICE UP 58 PERCENT, YEAR ON YEAR

An 11.4 percent, month on month, transaction price advance for hot rolled coil has been noted in the US in April. Market players expect further hikes because of increased scrap and energy expenses. Demand is seen to be improving, albeit at a slow pace. In Canada, the push from the mills for cost recovery continues. They have good enough order books to give them the confidence to pursue higher prices. These should be sustainable though the summer.

US plate transaction numbers are heading up, driven by higher input costs and improving demand. The energy sector, in particular, has strengthened. Nevertheless, distributors continue to keep stocks of commodity grade material under control as domestic delivery lead times are relatively short. Imports are available but buyers show little interest. In Canada, the bridge building and wind tower industries are producing fairly strong demand, so the steelmakers are busier now with project work. However, there is still very little activity from the service centres. Customers have agreed a sizeable increase during recent settlements.

We have noted further upward cold rolled price movements in the US. Although consumption is getting better, particularly from the automakers, it is not the key driver of the increases. Hardening scrap costs and tight supply are mainly to blame. Canadian demand has been buoyant enough to support higher transaction values this month and the mills have indicated they will push for even more as summer approaches. There are few interesting import offers.

Demand from the US automotive sector is firm. Forecasts for vehicle production during 2010 have been raised. However, sales of coated steel to the general market remain subdued, particularly from the depressed construction industry which shows little sign of revival. Both hot dipped galvanised and electro-zinc coated coil transaction figures have expanded over the last month. Auto demand is reasonably strong in Canada and output numbers are expected to improve as we head into spring. Sales to the construction market should also pick up soon for seasonal reasons. The mills report brisk business and transaction values have hardened, with buyers agreeing a rise of just over 3 percent.

The wire rod price tendency is once again positive in the US, where buyers have accepted the mills' need to recover inflated production expenditure. Inventories at the service centres and end-users are low. Moreover, domestic supply is limited and import volumes are still considerably below traditional levels. In Canada, current spot numbers are $C40 per tonne above the March level, although business conditions remain lacklustre.

The US mills' attempts to lift April transaction numbers for sections and beams proved successful. An absence of cheap import offers helped the increase to take hold, despite dismal consumption caused by an ailing non-residential construction sector. Nucor-Yamato has already decided to hold May figures steady. Canadian customers are keeping inventories down as they can see no significant change in demand in the near-term. As expected, producers have applied another round of transaction rises.

Although rebar sales have failed to resurge in the US, producers have secured a hike of $US50 per ton that was tabled to become effective April 1. Nucor has decided that there will be no change to transaction values for May shipments. We can see no evidence of any step up in demand in the Canadian market. However, transaction numbers have followed a positive trend over the last month, driven upwards by firming scrap costs.

US steelmakers have successfully jacked up merchant bar transaction numbers for April shipments, despite muted activity. However, the mills have recently announced that they will roll over the current prices for May business. Transaction values have also started to trend upwards in Canada, where demand is feeble.

Source:

• MEPS - NORTH AMERICAN CARBON STEEL PRICES

• MEPS- International Steel Review

• MEPS - ALL CARBON STEEL PRODUCTS COMPOSITE PRICE & INDEX

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