PESSIMISTIC OUTLOOK FOR STEEL PRODUCTION OVERDONE SAYS MEPS

Global Steel production in the first seven months of this year was 664 million tonnes – down almost 20 percent on the equivalent period in 2008, according to the World Steel Association. A marked upturn was recorded in July, down by just 11 percent on the previous year at 106 million tonnes.

Preliminary analysis by MEPS (International) Ltd suggests that the outturn for 2009 could reach 1190 million tonnes if the July improvement continues. This equates to a year on year reduction of approximately 10 percent – a figure substantially above the popular forecast of a decline of 14/15 percent by most pundits. The previous forecast in MEPS World Steel Outlook - Quarter two was 1165 million tonnes- a reduction of 12 percent.

The July outturn was boosted by strong levels of output in China. This may not be sustainable over the full year. However, inventory rebuilding has commenced in most of the industrialised nations of the world. The global economic outlook is improving with several countries moving out of recession.

MEPS – World Steel Outlook – Quarter 3 will be published in early October.

Source: MEPS - World Steel Outlook 

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