GLOBAL STEEL OUTPUT FORECAST TO REACH ALMOST 1.57 BILLION METRIC TONS IN 2011

MEPS (International) Ltd forecasts that world crude steel output will expand by 7.2 percent, year on year, to 1568 million metric tons in 2011. The company has upgraded its figure for production in 2010 to 1463 million metric tons after discovering significant under reporting by some Chinese mills last year. This new MEPS prediction for global steelmaking in 2011 is 155 million metric tons (10.6 percent) above the latest official statistics for 2010.

A significant proportion of the improvement in output will be driven by activities in the developing nations of the world. MEPS expects subdued demand from the steel sectors in the industrialised countries. China will continue to be the driving force behind growth in world steel production – providing more than half of the increased output.

Steel making in the EU27 is expected to increase by 4 percent this year – mainly due to improved production in Italy and Germany. Significant gains are predicted from new capacity, installed by the Turkish steel producers - pushing total European output upwards. Strong construction activity will generate increased steel manufacturing this year in the CIS region.

An upswing in steel purchases in the middle part of this year should lead to a solid gain in NAFTA output across 2011 – driven by inventory building prior to rising input costs.

Total South American steel production activity has shown a marked recovery in the early part of 2011. Brazilian imports have declined as local mills become more competitive. The steel sector in Venezuela has started to raise output.

Growth in both supply and demand has lifted steel making in the Middle East, despite the political uncertainty in the region. African production is in decline.

In Asia, Indian steel consumption continues to improve. The domestic mills are rising to the occasion by expanding supply at a rapid pace. Japanese output is likely to record a marginal increase. Steel demand is weak, due to the shortage of electricity, after the Tsunami which hit the country earlier in the year. South Korean production of steel will be up dramatically in 2011. New plants are now on stream and are building up to full productivity.

Is the quest for accurate steel industry statistics important? The answer is a resounding yes. Decisions by iron ore and metallurgical coal mining companies require carefully researched intelligence to assist in planning their future projects. Investors depend upon correct information to judge the viability of proposed new investments in the steel and raw material extraction sectors – not forgetting the need for analysis of carbon emissions.

Sources - MEPS World Steel Outlook Q2 2011  - MEPS China Steel Insight.