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Home > MEPS Steel News - 23.11.2016

CRUDE STEEL OUTPUT FORECAST TO REACH RECORD HIGH BY 2020

MEPS believes that global crude steel production, in 2016, will be broadly similar to that recorded in the previous year, at 1.62 billion tonnes. Our forecast represents an increase of just 0.3 percent, compared with 2015.

Steelmakers around the world continued to cut production in the early part of 2016, following reductions made for much of last year. However, the downtrend came to a halt in the April/June period, as global supply was relatively unchanged, on an annual basis. Output growth returned at the beginning of the second half of the year.

Decreased crude steel production in the EU and South America is expected to be offset by rises in China and India, in 2016.

Chinese output is forecast at 806 million tonnes -
up 1 percent, year-on-year. Despite this seemingly marginal growth rate, it still is a gain of more than 8 million tonnes. However, the increase is more pronounced due to the fact that China’s reported production for 2015 has been continually revised downwards, throughout 2016. It originally stood at 804 million tonnes, compared with the current figure of 798 million tonnes. Indian crude steel output is projected to rise, in 2016, by 6.3 percent, year-on-year. Production in the country is forecast at 95.2 million tonnes, this year, as domestic mills ramp up newly-installed steelmaking facilities.

MEPS expects growth in steel production worldwide to remain subdued in 2017, before picking up by approximately 2 percent in 2018. A record high annual outturn is anticipated by 2020, when global crude steel output is forecast to reach 1.685 billion tonnes, surpassing the previous all-time high figure witnessed in 2014. This projection represents an average increase of 1 percent per annum over the next four years.

 

Source: MEPS - World Steel Outlook Quarter 4 2016 

Download a sample copy of the report here



 

 

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