CRUDE STEEL OUTPUT
FORECAST TO REACH RECORD HIGH BY 2020
MEPS believes that global
crude steel production, in 2016, will be broadly similar to that
in the previous year, at 1.62 billion tonnes. Our forecast
represents an increase of just 0.3 percent, compared with 2015.
Steelmakers around the world continued to cut production in the
early part of 2016, following reductions made for much of last year.
However, the downtrend came to a halt in the April/June period, as
global supply was relatively unchanged, on an annual basis. Output
growth returned at the beginning of the second half of the year.
Decreased crude steel production in the EU and South America is
expected to be offset by rises in China and India, in 2016.
Chinese output is forecast at 806 million tonnes - up 1 percent,
year-on-year. Despite this seemingly marginal growth rate, it still
is a gain of more than 8 million tonnes. However, the increase is
more pronounced due to the fact that China’s reported production for
2015 has been continually revised downwards, throughout 2016. It
originally stood at 804 million tonnes, compared with the current
figure of 798 million tonnes. Indian crude steel output is projected
to rise, in 2016, by 6.3 percent, year-on-year. Production in the
country is forecast at 95.2 million tonnes, this year, as domestic
mills ramp up newly-installed steelmaking facilities.
MEPS expects growth in steel production worldwide to remain subdued
in 2017, before picking up by approximately 2 percent in 2018. A
record high annual outturn is anticipated by 2020, when global crude
steel output is forecast to reach 1.685 billion tonnes, surpassing
the previous all-time high figure witnessed in 2014. This projection
represents an average increase of 1 percent per annum over the next
Source: MEPS -
World Steel Outlook Quarter 4 2016
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