GLOBAL IRON AND STEEL PRODUCTION TO 2010 - A NEW REPORT FROM MEPS

The early part of the twenty first century has been the most momentous period in the history of the world's steel industry. In the final year of the last millennium, global crude steel production was just below 789 million tonnes. By 2005 the figure had reached 1129 and is forecast in 2006 to be 1237 million tonnes.

The average annual growth in steel production in the first six years of this decade was 6 percent. Our forecast to 2010 indicates a similar figure. Contrast this with a production average annual growth rate of 0.6 percent in the 1980's and virtually no gain through the 1990's.

In 2006, real demand for steel went up considerably in the European Union, Russia, United States and China. After the inventory draw down in 2005 many buyers were short of material to meet the growing needs. Steel customers ordered more than their immediate requirements and a stock build occurred - pushing output to record levels.

In 2007, a correction is forecast in the European Union and NAFTA countries. This will, almost certainly, result in a growth rate below the figures recorded in the previous two years. Moreover, the pace of steel demand growth in China appears to be stabilising at a level slightly below the percentages in the recent past. Furthermore, China will be a net exporting country in 2006. The high volumes of foreign sales will be curbed in 2007 by government actions. Output growth in China is likely to be held back.

As outlined in our previous report, a two speed steel industry is developing. Asian and Russian demand is racing ahead. At the same time, the industrialised nations are exhibiting more modest real growth conditions. New capacity is migrating towards steel demand. Furthermore, with high energy and steelmaking raw material costs, new capacity is often being scheduled for installation nearer to the location of the input materials.

Source: MEPS - Global Iron & Steel Production to 2010 - click here for an information sheet.