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CRUDE
STEEL PRODUCTION FORECAST TO TOP 1.1 BILLION TONNES IN 2008
An abstract from the report - "GLOBAL IRON & STEEL
PRODUCTION TO 2008". Published by MEPS (International) Ltd.
- September 2004
We expect crude steel production to expand steadily
over the next five years to reach just above 1.1 billion tonnes by 2008. This
represents an increase of 14.6 percent over the five years from 2003 or an
annual growth rate of 2.8 percent. Pig iron making will also increase
significantly over the forecast period. We estimate growth of 2.7 percent per
annum to reach 750 million tonnes in 2008. Many of the countries with
substantial rises in output have blast furnace/oxygen steelmaking as the
favoured process.
Direct Reduced Iron will take a greater share of the
ferrous inputs for steel manufacturing in the future. Countries in the Middle
East, Africa, Asia and South America, particularly those with a plentiful supply
of energy, will be consistently reporting higher production figures in the
future. We forecast total DRI output in the world in 2008 at just above 56
million tonnes. - up by 8.3 million tonnes (17.1 percent) on the outturn in
2003.
The most significant change in the distribution of
global iron and steel output will take place in China. Its share will expand
substantially over the next five years. The main losers in percentage terms,
will be the large industrialised areas, including the EU, NAFTA and Japan.
However, it should be noted that we forecast crude steel production expanding in
all regions of the world in the period to 2008.
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SUMMARY
OF CRUDE STEEL PRODUCTION - WORLD 1999 to 2008
(Million Tonnes)
|
| Region |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
| European
Union 25 |
176.0 |
186.6 |
180.6 |
181.2 |
184.0 |
188.8 |
190.9 |
194.6 |
195.5 |
193.1 |
| European
Union 15 |
155.3 |
163.4 |
158.6 |
158.7 |
160.3 |
164.0 |
165.9 |
168.8 |
169.5 |
167.6 |
| Other Europe |
22.4 |
23.8 |
24.6 |
26.5 |
28.5 |
30.7 |
31.1 |
31.5 |
33.1 |
34.7 |
| Former USSR |
85.7 |
98.6 |
99.8 |
101.6 |
107.5 |
110.4 |
114.2 |
116.8 |
118.5 |
119.7 |
| NAFTA |
130.0 |
135.1 |
119.9 |
123.9 |
122.8 |
127.6 |
131.4 |
135.3 |
135.5 |
134.5 |
|
S America
|
34.6 |
39.2 |
37.4 |
40.7 |
43.0 |
45.3 |
46.5 |
48.6 |
49.8 |
50.8 |
|
Africa
|
12.9 |
13.8 |
15.1 |
15.8 |
16.3 |
16.4 |
17.0 |
17.4 |
17.9 |
18.0 |
|
Middle East
|
9.8 |
10.8 |
11.7 |
12.4 |
13.4 |
13.6 |
15.0 |
16.2 |
16.8 |
17.3 |
| PR China |
124.0 |
127.2 |
150.9 |
181.6 |
220.1 |
250.0 |
269.6 |
281.3 |
288.9 |
296.5 |
|
Japan
|
94.2 |
106.4 |
102.9 |
107.8 |
110.5 |
111.1 |
111.0 |
112.0 |
111.0 |
111.0 |
| Rest
of Asia |
90.1 |
98.2 |
99.9 |
104.0 |
110.0 |
112.7 |
114.7 |
117.3 |
119.0 |
120.5 |
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Oceania
|
9.0 |
7.8 |
7.8 |
8.3 |
8.3 |
8.6 |
8.6 |
9.0 |
9.0 |
8.9 |
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| WORLD
TOTAL |
788.7 |
847.5 |
850.6 |
903.8 |
964.4 |
1015.2 |
1050.0 |
1080.0 |
1095.0 |
1105.0 |
Totals
may not be arithmetically correct because of rounding
More detailed analysis can be obtained from MEPS
(International) Ltd. www.meps.co.uk
Click here for more
details.
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