GLOBAL
STEEL PRODUCTION WILL CLIMB TO 1.16 BILLION TONNES OVER NEXT FOUR
YEARS SAYS MEPS
MEPS (International) Ltd predicts further
growth in output of iron and steel over the next four years in its
updated report "Global Iron
and Steel Production to 2008". However, the company warns
that the rate of expansion is likely to be at a much slower pace
than in recent years.
MEPS expect crude steel production to move
up steadily over the next few years to reach around 1.16 billion
tonnes by 2008. This represents an increase of 112 million tonnes
over the four years from 2004 or an annual growth rate of 2.7
percent. Pig iron making will increase at a similar rate over the
forecast period, to reach more than 790 million tonnes in 2008. Many
of the countries with substantial rises in output have blast
furnace/oxygen steelmaking as the favoured process.
According to MEPS, Direct Reduced Iron will
take an increasing share of the ferrous inputs for steel
manufacturing in the future. Countries in the Middle East, Africa,
Asia and South America, particularly those with a plentiful supply
of energy, will be consistently reporting higher production figures
in the medium term. DRI output in the world in 2008 is forecast at
around 60 million tonnes - up by 12.2 million tonnes (25.5 percent)
on the outturn in 2003.
MEPS reinforces their assertions from
previous reports that growth in steel manufacturing in future years
will move in tandem with increases in demand around the world. A
detailed analysis of the prospects in all the steel producing
nations (over one million tonnes) highlights the improving activity
in many emerging countries.
China's steel production in 2008 is
expected to equate to almost 30 percent of global output but the
rate of growth is predicted to slow as the government reigns in new
investment in the industry. Strong performances are anticipated from
steelmakers in the former USSR, South America, and many Asian
countries (excluding Japan). The main losers in percentage terms
will be the producers in the large industrialised areas, including
the EU, NAFTA and Japan. However, MEPS forecasts crude steel
production expanding in all regions of the world in the period to
2008.
SUMMARY OF CRUDE STEEL
PRODUCTION - WORLD 1998 to 2008
Million
Tonnes
Region
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
European Union 25
176.0
186.6
180.6
181.2
184.0
193.3
195.4
199.1
200.0
197.6
European
Union 15
155.3
163.4
158.6
158.7
160.3
168.2
170.1
173.0
173.7
171.8
Other Europe
22.4
23.8
24.6
26.5
28.5
31.4
31.8
32.2
33.8
35.4
Former USSR
85.7
98.6
99.8
101.6
107.5
110.8
114.6
117.2
118.9
120.1
NAFTA
130.0
135.1
119.9
123.9
122.8
133.0
136.8
140.7
140.9
139.9
South America
34.6
39.2
37.4
40.7
43.0
46.0
47.2
49.3
50.5
51.5
Africa
12.9
13.8
15.1
15.8
16.3
16.6
17.2
17.6
18.1
18.2
Middle East
9.8
10.8
11.7
12.4
13.4
14.2
15.6
16.8
17.4
17.9
PR China
124.0
127.2
150.9
181.6
220.1
269.2
311.0
322.7
330.3
337.9
Japan
94.2
106.4
102.9
107.8
110.5
112.7
112.6
113.6
112.6
112.6
Other Asia
90.1
98.2
99.9
104.0
110.0
112.5
114.5
117.1
118.8
120.3
Oceania
9.0
7.8
7.8
8.3
8.3
8.3
8.3
8.7
8.7
8.6
WORLD
TOTAL
788.7
847.5
850.6
903.8
964.4
1048.0
1105.0
1135.0
1150.0
1160.0
Totals
may not be arithmetically correct because of rounding
