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RECORD
BREAKING STEEL DEMAND FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO 2008
An abstract from the report - "GLOBAL IRON & STEEL
PRODUCTION TO 2008". Published by MEPS (International) Ltd.
- September 2004
The global steel sector is entering a new phase. Growth in China has
stimulated demand for steel across the Asian continent. The emerging and
developing countries in the region are showing strong manufacturing activity -
based on exports to the industrialised nations. Steel consumption is expected to
move upwards over the next five years.
The fortunes of the world steel scene cannot be estimated using regressive
analysis. Previous cyclical trends are not being followed. Boom conditions
currently apply - based mainly on perceived raw material shortages. In the three
years between 2001 and 2004 we estimate that apparent consumption of finished
steel expanded from 766 to 918 million tonnes. This represents an increase of
almost 20 percent or a year on year average of more than 6 percent. This
compares to a rate of 2.5 percent per annum in the ten years to 2002 and a 1.2 annual
percentage over three decades, 1970 to 2000.
We estimate global apparent consumption of finished steel in 2004 at 918
million tonnes - 5.3 percent above the year earlier figure. We do not expect the
recent growth rates to continue into the medium term. However, we are
forecasting further expansion in demand over the next few years - with apparent
consumption of finished steel reaching 1 billion tonnes in 2008. This equates to
an average annual increase of almost 3 percent over the next five years.
This rather modest prediction is based on two key factors. Firstly, apparent
consumption growth over the last three years is, in our opinion, above the level
of real demand. A large amount of inventory building has occurred, particularly
in China. The talk of shortages of raw materials has prompted buyers to carry
higher stock levels than previously considered necessary. Low interest rates
have made this exercise much less painful than in the past. Secondly, the
Chinese government is keen to avoid overheating of their economy. It is making
attempts to reduce growth in key industrial sectors, including steel.
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SUMMARY
OF APPARENT CONSUMPTION OF FINISHED STEEL 1999 to 2008 (Million Tonnes)
|
| Region |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
| European
Union 25 |
152.9 |
160.0 |
156.5 |
156.7 |
158.8 |
162.0 |
164.0 |
167.0 |
167.3 |
166.5 |
| European
Union 15 |
138.0 |
143.4 |
140.0 |
138.6 |
140.0 |
142.5 |
144.0 |
145.8 |
146.2 |
145.5 |
| Other Europe |
18.2 |
22.1 |
20.6 |
20.7 |
24.1 |
25.0 |
26.0 |
27.0 |
28.7 |
29.5 |
| Former USSR |
31.0 |
38.8 |
41.2 |
38.3 |
43.4 |
45.0 |
48.0 |
50.0 |
51.5 |
53.0 |
| NAFTA |
142.4 |
149.2 |
132.1 |
135.1 |
132.9 |
138.5 |
141.5 |
145.5 |
145.5 |
143.5 |
|
S America
|
24.8 |
28.1 |
28.4 |
27.4 |
28.1 |
30.5 |
31.5 |
33.5 |
34.5 |
35.5 |
|
Africa
|
15.4 |
15.0 |
16.3 |
17.4 |
17.1 |
17.5 |
18.0 |
18.5 |
19.0 |
19.0 |
|
Middle East
|
16.6 |
18.4 |
19.1 |
20.9 |
21.6 |
22.5 |
24.0 |
25.5 |
26.5 |
27.5 |
| PR China |
122.6 |
124.6 |
153.4 |
185.6 |
230.9 |
257.5 |
273.5 |
284.0 |
290.5 |
296.5 |
|
Japan
|
68.9 |
76.1 |
73.2 |
71.7 |
73.8 |
73.7 |
74.7 |
75.0 |
75.5 |
75.0 |
| Other Asia |
109.0 |
119.5 |
118.9 |
129.5 |
133.3 |
138.3 |
140.8 |
143.0 |
143.5 |
145.5 |
|
Asia
|
300.5 |
320.2 |
345.5 |
386.8 |
438.0 |
469.5 |
489.0 |
502.0 |
509.5 |
517.0 |
|
Oceania
|
6.7 |
6.4 |
6.3 |
7.1 |
7.5 |
7.5 |
8.0 |
8.0 |
8.5 |
8.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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| WORLD
TOTAL |
708.5 |
758.2 |
766.0 |
810.4 |
871.5 |
918.0 |
950.0 |
977.0 |
991.0 |
1000.0 |
Totals
may not be arithmetically correct because of rounding
More detailed analysis can be obtained from MEPS
(International) Ltd. www.meps.co.uk
Click here for more
details.
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