GLOBAL STEEL OUTPUT TO EXPAND BY 100 MILLION TONNES THIS YEAR

World steel production is now expected to reach over 1.35 billion tonnes in 2007. This is above our prediction three months ago - mainly due to upgrades of official figures for Canada and India. The increase is almost 8.5 percent.

Demand continues to be firm across the globe. We anticipate all regions recording higher output this year compared to the previous twelve month period.

Blast furnace iron making, this year, is foreseen at over 955 million tonnes - up from near 874 million tonnes in 2006. This is above our expectations three months ago. DRI production in 2007 is calculated at 63.4 million tonnes - more than 3 million tonnes higher than the figure recorded a year earlier.

Asian steel makers will account for 56 percent of the global steel output in 2007. Chinese and Indian producers will contribute around 73 percent of the extra 100 million tonnes manufactured this year.

The pattern of the steel industry over the next decade has been set. The fastest growth in consumption is likely to remain in Asia, former USSR and Middle East. The former two regions plus South America will satisfy the majority of the additional requirement.

Construction demand in the EU-27 continues to be firm. However, the manufacturing sector may have peaked. We forecast steel output in 2007 rising by 4.8 million tonnes, year on year (2.3 percent). The rate of growth in the EU-15 is expected to be slower.

A slight activity slowdown in the rate of economic growth across the region is anticipated in 2008. This, combined with a strong Euro keeping the market attractive to imports, is expected to limit the improvement in steel output next year to around 3 million tonnes.

Blast furnace ironmaking this year is estimated to expand at a slightly smaller percentage rate compared to steel. This is the result of strong demand for construction products, often long products manufactured by the electric melting process. DRI output will be little changed in 2007. No investment is anticipated in this sector.

Steel demand across the rest of Europe has been firm over the past eighteen months. Construction activity and industrial output have improved in most countries in this sub region.

We foresee crude steel output rising in 2007, compared to the previous twelve month period. The increase is expected to be 3.2 million tonnes. The majority of the gain will come from Turkish producers. New and refurbished plants have been brought up to maximum capacity this year in Turkey and several East European nations.

Further substantial production improvements are forecast for 2008. Economic growth is predicted to be robust over the period.

Strong economic growth is projected to continue across the CIS in 2007. This will lead to rising domestic demand in the region and significant extra requirements for steel products. We, therefore, forecast crude steel output rising in 2007 by 6.7 million tonnes - an increase of 5.6 percent compared to 2006. Further similar gains are forecast for 2008. Blast furnace iron making has expanded at a similar rate.

Our forecast for crude steel production in the NAFTA region has been upgraded in this issue. We now expect output in 2007 to expand to near 134 million tonnes. This represents a 1.3 percent gain over the year earlier figure. The majority of the increase will be from the electric melting process.

We maintain our 2007 prediction for raw steel production in South America at 47.3 million tonnes. This compares with a figure of 45.3 million tonnes in the previous year. Demand has been fair but production problems and political difficulties have prevented the region recording output at full potential.

Crude steel output in Africa is expected to rise modestly in 2007 relative to the year earlier figure. Demand has been quite strong over the past nine months in most regions. Planned maintenance at several steel plants has limited the expansion of production through most of this year.

Production of steel in the Middle East is predicted to increase in 2007 by 0.5 million tonnes relative to the figure in the previous year. A small gain is anticipated for blast furnace iron making.

Total Asian crude steel output in 2007 should easily top the 750 million tonne mark. The region’s share of world production continues to expand year on year, as new capacity is installed. The outturn in 2008 will, almost certainly, be well in excess of 800 million tonnes.

Only modest gains in steel output are expected in Oceania this year.

Source: MEPS - World Steel Outlook.               Click here for latest Iron and Steel Forecasts.