EU AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICES - LATEST FORECASTS FROM MEPS

July month-on-month (year-on-year) percentage changes:

All Products Composite Price: -6.8 (+46.8)

A drop of over €40 per tonne was recorded in the MEPS – EU average “all products” composite selling figure in July. The mill’s attempts to raise transaction numbers for flat categories in the third quarter were, as we expected, not accepted in the market. Instead they were forced to lower their offer prices in an attempt to compete with cheap Indian and Chinese imports. Falling scrap costs, coupled with weakening demand, pushed long product values down this month. European buyers remain cautious. End-user consumption was poor.

We have made a downward adjustment to our forecast this month due the weakening sales climate. Overcapacity is likely to remain a feature of the market over the summer period, despite several steelmakers cutting output. Consequently, flat products transaction values are expected to drop over the next few months. A rise in scrap costs is anticipated in the short term due to increased buying activity from Turkish customers ahead of Ramadan. This should help to stabilise long products prices in the third quarter.

Recent declines in spot iron ore costs will, almost certainly, result in lower contract prices for EU mills in the final trimester. This will also push scrap values down. Steel selling figures are, therefore, forecast to decrease in the October to December period. Moreover, seasonally lower demand and year end financial constraints are likely to add to the negative pressure on transaction numbers. However, a price crash is not anticipated.

A revival in selling values is predicted for early in the New Year. Distributors are expected to re-fill depleted inventories as sales activity grows. This should help to boost both steel prices and production volumes. However, anticipated cuts in government spending could limit the upward movement in transaction values during 2011.

Source: MEPS Steel Prices Online                     MEPS - EU Carbon Steel Prices