STAINLESS STEEL PRICES TO DIP IN FINAL QUARTER BEFORE RECOVERING IN 2011

World stainless steel transaction prices have followed a general upward trend over the past twelve months. Stronger economic conditions, coupled with various government stimulus projects, boosted steel consumption. De-stocking by distributors resulted in low inventory levels by the end of last year. This helped to stabilise the market.

Transaction values in western countries slipped during the final quarter of 2009 due to seasonally lower demand. Cheap imports from China also put negative pressure on selling numbers. However, many producers reduced output in a bid to stem the downward price movement.

Transaction figures in all regions climbed during the first half of 2010. Rising raw material costs pushed stainless steel values higher. Producers in the US and Europe were able to recover their escalating input expenditure through the alloy surcharge mechanism.

Stronger market conditions and tight supply enabled steelmakers in the EU to implement advances in basis numbers. Consequently, European average selling figures surged by around 50 percent during the first and second trimesters. Coil values in North America expanded in excess of 40 percent in the same period. A smaller increase of over 30 percent was recorded in plate prices.

The growth in trade from Asian nations helped to keep local numbers in this region steady towards the end of last year. Grade 304 prices moved up by approximately 20 percent between August 2009 and May 2010 as consumption by the domestic automotive and white goods manufacturers improved. Type 316 figures firmed by almost 15 percent. As a result of the boost in sales volumes, many mills were producing close to full capacity by the second quarter of 2010.

A slight pick-up in demand could occur after the summer holiday period in western countries. Mills across the world are planning to restrict output in the third and fourth quarters in an attempt to re-balance supply in the market. However, we believe that this will be insufficient to prevent further downward movement in selling figures.

Some of the financial stimuli that helped to sustain activity in Europe and the US will disappear soon. Falling input costs are likely to add to the negative price pressure in the short term. This, coupled with de-stocking in the run up to the year end, could push transaction values lower in the final few months of 2010.

An upturn in selling figures is anticipated for early in 2011. Raw material costs are expected to climb. This should help to boost market activity as customers buy ahead of perceived price increases. Low production volumes could result in some shortages developing. Consequently, stainless steel values are forecast to climb through to the middle of next year.

The economic recovery will remain fragile in many countries. The availability of credit may be limited by sovereign debt problems in Europe. Consequently, mill sales volumes are expected to stay below previous maximum levels. This will, almost certainly, restrict the upward price movement over the next twelve months.

Source: MEPS - Stainless Steel Review - click here for a free sample copy.

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