MEPS PREDICTS RECORD
GLOBAL STAINLESS STEEL PRODUCTION IN 2016 & 2017
MEPS predicts that world
crude stainless steel output will reach an all-time high of 43.3
million tonnes in calendar year 2016. This would represent a 4.2
percent increase on the previous record figure, set last year. MEPS
expects further growth in global production in 2017. A new peak
volume of 45 million tonnes is forecast for next year.
Worldwide outturn during the second quarter was, largely, in line
with our previous estimate, except in China, where the recently
published figure exceeds the total previously foreseen, for the
second quarter. Consequently, global output during the first six
months was 4 percent more than in the same period in 2015. The
year-on-year growth rate is expected to remain at this level during
the second half of 2016.
Amongst the established stainless steelmaking regions, total output
in 2016 is forecast to be slightly lower than last year in the EU,
United States, Japan and South Korea. Production in Taiwan has
recovered substantially, in the first half of this year, but the
projected annual total will only reach around 72 percent of the
country’s peak figure, recorded in 2006.
After a marginal reduction in output in 2015, Chinese production has
picked up, this year, with an estimated annual growth rate of nearly
7 percent. The country’s dominance as the world’s largest producer
of stainless steel continues to increase. China’s share of global
output has risen from 18.5 percent in 2006 to a predicted 53.2
percent in 2016. Further expansion, of around 5 percent, is foreseen
for next year.
Demand in the EU has been quite flat. The level of production has
fluctuated very little, in the past three years. Total output, for
2016, is predicted to be marginally down on the 2015 figure, at 7.15
million tonnes. An annual increase of just 50,000 tonnes is
predicted for 2017.
Consumption in the United States is also steady. Stainless steel
production is expected to total 2.3 million tonnes in 2016 – around
2 percent less than last year. However, output is predicted to
return to the 2015 level, next year.
Japan’s 2016 outturn is foreseen at 3.05 million tonnes,
representing a reduction of 0.4 percent. Our forecast for 2017 is an
increase of 50,000 tonnes. South Korea’s estimated results show a
similar pattern. The 2016 total is likely to be around one percent
lower than last year’s figure. A moderate annual growth rate of
around 2 percent is envisaged for next year.
Following better-than-expected figures for the first half of this
year, a substantial increase, of over 12 percent, is forecast for
Taiwan’s output in 2016. Further steady growth, at a rate of around
4 percent, year-on-year, is expected in 2017.
Source: MEPS -
Review - October Issue
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