RECORD HIGH LEVELS OF STAINLESS STEEL OUTPUT PREDICTED FOR 2011 AND 2012

Total world crude stainless steel production for 2011 is predicted to be 32.5 million tonnes. This would be an all-time high tonnage, 4.5 percent greater than the previous record, set last year. MEPS’ earlier forecast has been revised downward because economies around the world have recovered from recession less quickly than had been anticipated. Further output gains are expected in 2012. Growth of 7.1 percent is forecast, to give an annual crude stainless steel outturn of 34.8 million tonnes.

Despite lower than predicted demand, and therefore production, during the second and third quarters of this year, Chinese annual output is forecast to grow by more than 13 percent on last year's previous record. A further increase of approximately 11 percent is anticipated in 2012. Taiwanese producers continue to lose market share to the expanding stainless steel industries of China and South Korea. This year's forecast outturn will be the lowest annual figure for many years.

In Japan, stainless steel production has been maintained at a decent level despite the natural disaster, earlier this year. The 2011 total outturn is predicted to be marginally down on last year's mark. South Korea has performed more strongly than some of its neighbours this year, increasing finished products capacity and maintaining export volumes with aggressive selling. Total output for 2011 is expected to rise by 3.5 percent.

The final outturn for the second quarter in the United States was much lower than had been envisaged. Subdued production continued throughout the summer period. Consequently, the anticipated total output for 2011 represents a decrease of 3.6 percent on last year's figure.

The recovery in the European Union has been restrained by sovereign debt issues in several member nations. Forecast stainless steel output for 2011 is 1.0 percent up on the previous year's production but still less than 81 percent of the peak figure from 2006.

Source: MEPS - Stainless Steel Review