MEPS FORECASTS A 2 MILLION TONNE DROP IN STAINLESS STEEL OUTPUT IN 2009

Global crude stainless steel production in 2009 is expected to decline to 23.9 million tonnes. This equates to a 9.2 percent reduction on the outturn in the previous twelve months.

Our forecast for stainless output in the EU this year is just below 6 million tonnes. This will be a fifteen year low - despite a significant improvement in activity during the July to December period.

Japanese stainless steelmaking also expanded during the second half of this year and is now expected to reach 2.4 million tonnes in 2009 as auto demand picks up and inventory rebuilding continues. Notwithstanding the recent upturn in demand, this year's outturn will be the smallest since 1983.

A similar fate has befallen the stainless steel industry in the United States. With a predicted crude steel output of 1.5 million tonnes in 2009, it will be a twenty-seven year low figure. Weak industrial and construction activity created a poor market environment.

South Korean stainless production, this year, is forecast to be marginally down on the 2008 outturn. The market is holding up reasonably well. Taiwanese production in 2009 should remain at a similar level to that recorded in the previous twelve months, despite relatively weak domestic consumption.

We foresee a slight decrease in output this year in the "others" category. South African production will be down. Brazilian stainless steelmaking is also expected to decline, year on year. However, stronger market conditions are developing. Demand in India is fair.

Chinese output in 2009 will be at an all time high of around 8.6 million tonnes. After a slow start to the year, production has been racked up as new plant and equipment was brought up to near its full rated capacity. Demand has also been solid. This has led to an estimated 20 percent increase in stainless steel output over the year.

Source: MEPS - Stainless Steel Review - click here for a free sample copy.

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