STAINLESS BASIS PRICES UNDER PRESSURE AS ALLOY SURCHARGES SOAR

The record average nickel price in February at above $US41,000 per tonne will result in substantially higher alloy surcharges for austenitic grades of steel in the near term. In the US, the surcharge for type 304 cold rolled coil will top $US3,700 per tonne in April. A different method of calculating the surcharge applies in the EU and this month's nickel price will, we estimate, push it to over $US3,500 (€2,600) per tonne in May for the same product.

It is highly likely that the mills in these two areas will not be able to pass on the full alloy surcharge to their customers without considerably discounting the basis prices. Sentiment in both regions has changed in recent weeks as the threat from low priced imports has now been realised.

Destocking is a feature of the US market. Substantial oversupply has developed and customer orders on the local mills are drying up. Delivery lead times are already relatively short. Buyers are unlikely to accept current basis figures plus the increased alloy surcharge for austenitic grades for future orders. Competitively priced imports are available.

The Italian market is already awash with low priced imported material, mainly from the Far East. This is likely to filter into other parts of the EU. Availability across the region is now much easier. We sense that, with excess in the market and customers having reasonably high stock levels, they "smell blood" and will be demanding lower basis prices for new orders.

Source: MEPS - Stainless Steel Review - click here for a free sample copy.

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