SUBSTITUTION
THREAT CONTINUES FOR AUSTENITIC STAINLESS STEELS
Firm evidence has now emerged
of the extent to which high nickel prices are causing substitution
of austenitic stainless steels by other materials on a global basis.
Recent signs from Japan indicated rising demand for nickel-free
ferritic grades and falling demand for nickel-bearing austenitics.
This has now been supplemented by global figures showing a trend
away from costly austenitics and towards chrome-manganese grades.
Statistics from the recent
meeting of the International Stainless Steel Forum show that
production of chrome - manganese steels has more than doubled in the
last four years. In 2001 they accounted for 5.3 percent of world
stainless production, or 1.02 million tonnes. By 2004, however,
their share had risen to 9.3 percent, equivalent to 2.29 million
tonnes and an increase of 125 percent.
Conversely, austenitic
(chrome-nickel) grades – which historically have accounted for
over 70 percent of production – fell to only 66 percent in 2004.
The share of ferritic grades has been virtually static at between 22
and 23 percent, according to the ISSF figures.
While much of the 200 series
(low-nickel/chrome-manganese) material is being produced in India
and China, producers elsewhere are also interested. Serious research
and development work into manganese-bearing stainless steels is
known to be going on in Europe and probably elsewhere.
For applications where high
corrosion-resistance is not critical, 200 series materials offer an
increasingly affordable choice. Taking the US market as an example,
the alloy surcharge on type 304 flat products containing 8 percent
nickel has increased by about 10 percent since the start of this
year; but the surcharge on type 201 (3.5 percent nickel) has come
down. At about 35 cents per lb, the current alloy surcharge on type
201 is barely more than half the surcharge on 304. However, such
applications are quite restricted in number. Some of the growth in
chrome-manganese stainless appears to be the result of users
choosing it simply because it is cheaper – and only finding out
later that it was not suitable for the job.
