MEPS FORECASTS WORLD CRUDE STEEL OUTPUT THIS YEAR BELOW THE 2007 OUTTURN

Preliminary data from MEPS (International) Ltd's investigation for its, soon to be published, reports "World Steel Outlook" and "Global Iron and Steel Production to 2013" indicate a modest reduction in global crude steel production in 2008 at 1.34 billion tonnes. In the eight months to August, output was 6.1 percent up on the figure in the same period of 2007. Growth was recorded in all regions, with the exception of Africa.

Massive production cuts have taken place in the last four months of this year in all parts of the world. No region is escaping the misery. The transformation has been quite remarkable. Total output in September declined 6.5 percent, year on year. In October the figure was near 12.5 percent. Even greater reductions are anticipated for November and December.

Moreover, the outturn in 2009 is forecast to be below the tonnage recorded in 2008. Activity in the first half on next year is expected to be poor. An improvement is anticipated in the second half but it is not likely to be strong enough to bring the total for the full year to above the figure recorded in 2008. All regions of the world will be affected. The global output reduction this year will be the first since 1998 and not since the early 1990's have two consecutive years of contraction occurred.