STEEL INDUSTRY DOWN BUT NOT OUT - RECOVERY FORECAST FOR 2010 - NEW RECORD CONSUMPTION IN 2012.

According to a new report from MEPS (International) Ltd entitled, Global Iron and Steel Production to 2013, world crude steel production in 2009 is forecast to be approximately 1200 million tonnes. This represents a reduction of almost 10 percent on the year earlier figure. All economic forecasters indicate an upturn in 2010. MEPS predicts a 5 percent improvement in steel output in that year. Further growth in steelmaking is forecast for the following three years as the global economy improves. A new record steel production figure is anticipated in 2012 – five years after the previous high point.

The MEPS projection for blastfurnace iron production in 2009 is 852 million tonnes – 8.2 percent below the tonnage recorded in the previous twelve month period. This decline is less than that for steel but pig iron output fell faster than steel in the final few months of 2008. Moreover, the blastfurnace mills were quicker to react to the downturn in activity due to the rapid fall in demand for flat products used in the auto and home appliance sectors of the market.

The outlook for direct ironmaking in 2009 is also quite bleak. Significant cut backs are anticipated in South America, the NAFTA region, Africa and the Middle East. Steel output in these regions has suffered contagion from the banking crisis in the west. Strong gains are, however, anticipated over the following four years.

MEPS expects 2010 to be a time of steady but not exciting steel demand growth. Government stimulus measures should be starting to have a beneficial effect on the steel market from renewed economic growth. Credit is likely to become easier and further rises in stock levels should then accrue. Global finished steel consumption is forecast to increase by just above 5 percent.

In 2011, MEPS foresees world apparent finished steel consumption at a figure marginally below the peak four years earlier. Continued economic growth should provide the platform for renewed activity in the main steel consuming sectors of construction, automotive, home appliances and general engineering. In the final three years of the forecast period we envisage annual growth in steel consumption of near 5 percent. These gains would be fuelled by rising demand in the developing and emerging countries of the world.

MEPS also predicts that total Asian steel output in 2013 will be above the figure recorded in 2008 in both tonnage and share of global output. However, the proportion produced by Japan is likely to decline as other regional mills improve their ability to supply the superior grades.

The developing nations are expected to increase their share of total world supply of steel in the coming years – with the EU-15 member states, NAFTA countries and Japan all making a lower contribution to the global figure in 2013, relative to 2008.

Source: Global Iron & Steel Production to 2013  - A new report from MEPS (International) Ltd.