MEPS FORECASTS GLOBAL CRUDE STEEL PRODUCTION TO EXCEED 1.6 BILLION TONNES IN 2014

Despite the difficulties brought about by the economic crisis which commenced in late 2008 and extended throughout much of last year, global iron and steel production will be at “all-time” high tonnages in 2010. Global output of raw steel is forecast to reach 1395 million tonnes – almost 14 percent up on the year earlier figure and 3.7 percent above the previous peak value in 2007. In 2014, MEPS forecasts global steel output at 1625 million tonnes – 33 percent above the outturn last year.

Total steel production in the EU-27 plummeted by 30 percent in 2009. However, the recovery is expected to be rapid in 2010. MEPS forecasts a figure of 170 million tonnes this year. Further growth in this region is expected to be quite modest. Strong growth in the non-EU European nations is forecast for the period to 2014.

Steel output in the CIS reached a peak tonnage in 2007, for the period post break up of the Soviet Union. The global economic crisis led to production decreases in 2008/2009 but these were less than those recorded in Western Europe. In 2010 a recovery is underway. This should extend into the period to 2014.

Steel production in the NAFTA region fell by 50 million tonnes (almost 40 percent) over the two years from 2007. MEPS predicts that half of the reduction will be recovered in 2010. A rapid improvement will be restricted by weak economic indicators for housing starts and infrastructure projects. A modest improvement is forecast over the following four years, as many of the measures to stimulate the economy bear fruit.

Steel output in South America declined in 2009, as a result of the global economic crisis, by 10 million tonnes from its high point in 2007. Domestic demand improved in 2010 in a number of countries in the region but in others consumption reduced due to an energy crisis. Consequently the rebound was incomplete. The market should improve steadily over the next few years and MEPS expects a new “all-time” high figure for production in 2012 and further increases to 2014.

The global economic crisis negatively affected steel demand and supply in the African continent during 2008 and 2009. A modest revival is predicted in 2010 as market conditions improve. In 2014, MEPS forecasts total steel output at 19 million tonnes – a new record high figure for the region. Demand for steel in the Middle East has increased steadily since the millennium. Local steel production has also expanded – rising consistently over the past eleven years from just above 9 million tonnes to 17.7 million tonnes in 2009. Further strong output growth is expected in 2010 from newly installed capacity. Plans are in place for further investment in steelmaking. MEPS forecast substantial growth to 2014 of almost 9 million tonnes.

Growth in Chinese steel production continued its inexorable rise throughout the global financial crisis in 2008/9. Further expansion is forecast into the future but at a slower pace than in the recent past. The government is making attempts to stop the economy overheating and to cut speculation in the housing market. However, MEPS is predicting an increase in steel manufacturing of more than 30 percent over the five years from 2009. A large proportion of this is expected to occur in 2010, with raw steel production rising by almost 60 million tonnes to an estimated 627 million tonnes.

In 2009, Japanese crude steel output declined by more than 30 million tonnes (26 percent) as a result of the global financial crisis. In 2010, a partial recovery will have taken place, with an estimated rise of 20 million tonnes. Further modest growth is anticipated over the following four years.

Steel output in the Asian countries, excluding China and Japan, reached 149 million tonnes in 2008. After nine years of continuous growth, the financial crisis forced many producers to cut supply in 2009. A strong rebound has occurred in 2010, with steelmaking expected to climb to in excess of 160 million tonnes in this sub-region. Further improvement is forecast in the period to 2014 from new planned capacity increases and rising market demand.

Source: Global Iron & Steel Production to 2014  - A new report from MEPS (International) Ltd.