STAINLESS STEEL AND NICKEL PRICE FORECASTS FROM MEPS

ASIAN HOT ROLLED STAINLESS TYPE 304

The MEPS September Asian Average Hot Rolled Coil transaction value dropped more than 17 per cent from July's figure due to large falls in nickel prices and weaker demand. Exports are not attractive to Western buyers, resulting in more material in the Asian domestic markets. Mills have responded by cutting production. This should help to stabilise prices in the short term.

The MEPS Asian average Hot Rolled Plate price did not drop by as much as Coil, due to stronger market conditions. Mills are pursuing exports to the West aggressively with some success. Plate figures should therefore continue to be firm over period four.

A price revival is forecast for the New Year, with mill order books strengthening as customers look to refill inventories. Consumer confidence in transaction values is expected to return with nickel prices once again moving upwards. Exports to the West should also begin to pick up. The first half of 2008 we forecast a 5 per cent price hike for both products.

NICKEL

The monthly average nickel figure is set to be higher in September after a low of just over $US27,500 per tonne in August. This was due, in part, to the recent Fed rate cut. However, the cash price is not expected to climb much further in the short term as nickel inventories on the LME continue to rise. Volumes have topped 30,000 tonnes for the first time since April 2006. As the fourth quarter of 2007 progresses, stainless mills are expected to begin drawing down on these nickel reserves once again. This is forecast to push nickel values gradually back towards the $US40,000 per tonne mark during the first half of 2008. The traditional Summer holiday period for the stainless industry is then predicted to result in a softening in nickel prices.

Source: MEPS - Stainless Steel Review - click here for a free sample copy.

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