MEPS - ROLLED STEEL PRODUCTION/SHIPMENTS FORECAST IN ASIA

SOUTH KOREA

Our forecast for production of ordinary rolled steel products this year is similar to the prediction in the last issue. All flat products’ categories are expected to expand. This is the result of firm demand from the automotive and shipbuilding sectors, together with improving exports to Asian transplant factories. Strong gains are envisaged in the manufacture of structural shapes as new supply rolls back import volumes. Domestic consumption in the building and construction sectors is quite flat and is likely to remain stagnant this year.

TAIWAN

Rolled steel production in 2004 is anticipated to reach 24.4 million tonnes in 2004 - up by more than 5 percent on the previous year’s figure. All products are in line for an improvement. However, the best gains will be seen in the manufacturing of hot rolled coil. Taiwan is a net importer of substantial quantities of semi finished products. Around one quarter of all rolled ordinary steel products are manufactured from imported billet and slab. Taiwanese construction activity is relatively weak. The manufacturing segment is better but heavily dependent
upon export sales to China.

JAPAN

Our forecast for shipments of ordinary steel finished products in 2004 is broadly similar to the figure in the last issue. All the improvement will come in the flat products segment. Plate supply for the shipbuilding industry will show a substantial rise. Coated sheet and cold rolled shipments will also expand to satisfy the firm demand from the automotive and IT sectors. Building and construction is improving a little but this is insufficient to fire up any gains this year in bar manufacturing.

CHINA

We have uprated our forecast for both crude steel production and finished steel shipments in this issue. The statistical classifications for shipments have changed slightly. This has impacted on data for bars and wire rod (particularly bar sales from wire rod manufacturers). The government’s restrictions on investment have affected demand for long products quite dramatically. Inventories of bar products had been building up through the first part of the year. We expect supply to slow down in the second half as these stocks are depleted. In contrast, new capital investment in flat products manufacturing is bearing fruit and shipments could expand by well over 20 percent in 2004.

Source: MEPS - World Steel Outlook