EU AVERAGE STAINLESS STEEL PRICES - LATEST FORECASTS FROM MEPS

Transaction values for all products are forecast to climb further in the short term as market sentiment continues to improve. Austenitic alloy surcharges are expected to escalate in June 2009. This will be the first real increase since October 2008 and is the result of rises for most raw material cost elements in the surcharge calculation. Further hikes are anticipated as nickel values move higher. Domestic mills are expected to try to lift basis numbers over the next few months. Many customers will probably begin to replenish depleted inventories. However, underlying demand is likely to remain low during the rest of 2009. Imports could become more attractive as prices rise and delivery lead times extend. This may temper advances over the traditionally weaker winter period.

The monthly average cash nickel price is on course to increase in May 2009. More positive economic news helped to buoy values. Inventories held in LME warehouses moved downwards throughout May 2009. This is the first time figures have showed a significant downward movement since the middle of 2008. We expect nickel stocks to reduce further in the short term as mines continue to cut output, with many closing for long periods over the summer of 2009. Consequently, prices should move higher over the next quarter of 2009. However, the large inventory overhang is unlikely to be consumed this year. This will, almost certainly, temper rises in nickel values during 2009. More substantial price advances are then forecast in early 2010 as the world economy emerges from the downturn.

The stainless steel price recovery is forecast to continue through the first half of 2010 as the European economy emerges from the deep recession. Credit restrictions should ease, enabling companies to make larger purchases. End user demand is forecast to pick up through this period. Consumer confidence should return when government funded projects get underway.
 

Source: MEPS Steel Prices Online                        MEPS - World Stainless Steel Prices