COMPOSITE  STEEL PRICE - LATEST FORECASTS FROM MEPS

WORLD (GLOBAL) - ALL PRODUCTS COMPOSITE CARBON STEEL PRICE

The MEPS - Global Price (embracing flat and long carbon steel average values for the three main regions) fell by approximately one percent in January compared to the previous month. This was broadly in line with our December prediction. The US dollar in January, recovered some of December's lost value to most other major currencies.

In the short term, we still believe that the global composite price will steadily decline to mid year. We expect flat product average values to fall in the EU and Asia. US selling figures are likely to bottom out over the period. In the longer term, price gains are anticipated in all regions through the second half of the year. Long products figures are forecast to rise in Asia but fall in the US and EU over the next few months. A revival is predicted in the third quarter in all regions.

EU - ALL PRODUCTS COMPOSITE CARBON STEEL PRICE

The average value in January declined by 1.7 percent in line with our prediction last month. This was partly due to currency exchange rate movements as the US dollar strengthened against most major currencies. In Euro terms, the composite price actually increased a little.

Over the next five months we expect flat product prices to decline as customers deplete their inventories and long product average values to slip marginally. This is expected to result in a 6 percent reduction in the "all products" figure. A slow but steady price improvement is predicted up to the end of this year when the destocking phase has been completed in the flat products segment and seasonal gains are achieved for long products.

NORTH AMERICA - ALL PRODUCTS COMPOSITE CARBON STEEL PRICE

The January average figure declined by a small amount as predicted in our previous report. Both long and flat product values slipped. Oversupply continues to be a problem in the flat products segment. Lower scrap costs kept long products prices in check.

The "all products" composite price is forecast to be slightly lower into the Spring. In the flat products sector import volumes are reducing somewhat but inventory depletion is likely to continue for several months more - thus marginally depressing transaction values. A seasonal downturn in long product prices in the first quarter is anticipated. During the second half of the year, the composite price is forecast to increase as supply and demand for flat products move into equilibrium and the mills react more quickly to the import threat to avoid massive oversupply. More positive signs are expected from the construction sector in the second half which should improve demand and prices in the long products category.

ASIA - ALL PRODUCTS COMPOSITE CARBON STEEL PRICE

The average composite price in January was slightly below our expectations - mainly due to currency exchange rate movements as the US dollar strengthened. Flat products price rises in China were partly offset by weakness in the South Korean and Taiwanese markets.

The Asian composite price is expected to be reasonably stable over the first quarter as long products selling values hold up in many countries and construction demand stays firm. However, flat product prices are expected to slip as Chinese oversupply develops over the Springtime before levelling off in the Summer. A small decrease in price is anticipated in mid year in the composite figure before rising once more towards the end of 2007 as the peak season for construction progresses.

Source: MEPS - STEEL PRICES ON-LINE (regional steel price tables & forecasts)