COMPOSITE STEEL PRICE - LATEST FORECASTS FROM MEPS
(GLOBAL) - ALL PRODUCTS COMPOSITE
The MEPS Global Steel Price in April jumped
by 3.5 percent. Market sentiment has changed in the past six weeks.
Planned and unplanned outages have led to the fear of shortage for
many products. Customers have increased their order patterns in an
attempt to lift their inventories as a hedge against late
deliveries. Stronger market conditions have also lifted scrap costs.
We now forecast quite sharp rises in steel selling values in the
short term. The peak is anticipated in the third quarter of the year
at around 9 percent above current values. This is likely to be
followed by a steady decline as customer orders fall away when the
mills satisfy orders on hand.
- ALL PRODUCTS COMPOSITE
The likely impact of Asian and other
regional imports on EU prices has not materialised. Across the world
many mills have key plants out of service - some planned some
unplanned. The fear of a shortfall in deliveries has prompted
customers to increase their volume of orders. This has enabled the
mills to push up prices. We believe that this situation will
continue into the Autumn,. A price decline is then forecast as a
degree of oversupply develops when steelmakers catch up on orders.
The zenith in this cycle is predicted to be at least 12 percent
above existing figures when measured in US dollar values.
AMERICA - ALL PRODUCTS COMPOSITE
High levels of imports has not impacted on
steel prices because supply from local mills has been kept in check
through maintenance programmes and the prospect of reduced import
volumes - particularly after the accident at CSN in Brazil. We
detect negative customer sentiment about steel availability in the
short term. Domestic mill order books are booming and supply
shortfalls are a genuine prospect. Prices are now forecast to rise
by approximately 6 percent over the next six months.
- ALL PRODUCTS COMPOSITE
Many Asian mills are regulating output in
an effort to stop prices falling. Improvements can be seen in China
and Taiwan, with isolated gains in South Korea and Japan. We expect
this situation to continue with prices rising in the rest of the
world over the next six months. Gains of around 8/9 percent are
forecast over the period to September/October in Asia. A modest
decline is anticipated to the end of the forecast period. We
envisage a significant improvement in real demand over the next year
in this region. Export volumes are likely to expand from the final
quarter of 2006.
Source: MEPS -
STEEL PRICES ON-LINE (regional steel price tables & forecasts)
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