NORTH AMERICA - COMPOSITE CARBON STEEL PRICE - LATEST FORECAST FROM MEPS

May month-on-month (year-on-year) percentage changes:

All Products Composite Price: +0.3 (+43.1)

The MEPS – North American Average All Products Composite transaction value moved up marginally in May. Long products prices remained relatively stable as a decline in scrap costs dampened market sentiment. Increases were noted for most flat categories in may, despite lower mill sales volumes. Many customers are concerned that the current price levels may be unsustainable in the short term. The weakening demand for raw materials has prompted us to make a downward revision to our short term predictions.

We believe that May will be the peak of the current price cycle. Transaction values are expected to fall over the next few months as raw material costs decline. Currency exchange rate movements between the US dollar and the Euro are also likely to limit export potential and increase the possibility of imports. This, coupled with blast furnaces due back on stream shortly, could lead to oversupply and put additional negative pressure on steel selling figures towards the end of the year.

A recovery in transaction values is predicted early in 2011 as the economic climate improves. Credit restrictions are expected to ease enabling the start-up of new projects. Many distributors are likely to re-build inventories in preparation for the seasonal pick-up in activity during the spring months. This should lift mills sales volumes and, therefore, crude steel production levels. Consequently, raw material costs are forecast to climb and put additional upward pressure on steel selling figures by the second quarter. However, government spending cuts could limit the size of price increases next year.
 

Source: MEPS - NORTH AMERICAN STEEL PRICES ON-LINE