NORTH
AMERICAN AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICES
- LATEST FORECASTS FROM MEPS
Despite the small improvement in the
average figure in March, we expect flat product prices to hold up
next month before falling under the pressure from imports over the
next four to six months. We do not anticipate a price collapse but a
steady decline in transaction values is a distinct possibility over
the period. We expect average figures to stabilise in the final
quarter of 2006 and into the first trimester of 2007 and end the
forecast time frame marginally above our previous prediction. The
import pressure should ease somewhat as domestic demand improves in
other parts of the world.
The North American long products sector
remains quite fragile. The threat from imports is likely to be
realised in the next few months. Despite improving demand as the
construction season develops, we expect foreign material to
adversely affect prices up to the end of this year. The impact will
not be dramatic but is likely to be real. The Canadian market could
be worse hit than the US.
