NORTH AMERICAN AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICES - LATEST FORECASTS FROM MEPS

In the flat products category, the inventory build from the substantial import tonnage will take several months to be discharged into the market. Real demand continues to be sluggish in the strip mill sector. As a consequence, we now expect a degree of steel price erosion for these products over the Summer months. However, plate selling values should hold up quite well. Our North American average flat products price is forecast to decrease to $US702 per tonne - 2.5 percent below the June value at the end of the third quarter.

Demand is expected to increase in the final trimester of 2007 as activity recovers after the Summer vacations and the stock levels start to be replenished. Moreover, offers from foreign suppliers are likely to be priced a little higher as the new export levy bites on the profitability of the main exporting mills in China. Prices are then forecast to move upwards through the latter months of this year and during the first half of 2008.

The outlook for prices in the long products sector is now more bullish. Import penetration is light for most product forms. The uncertainties of higher duties on material from China has unsettled prospective buyers from this location. They are reverting to domestic supply - thus pushing up local demand. The previously anticipated price decline, resulting from a reduction in scrap costs appears now to be less likely. We now predict reasonably stable figures for the MEPS - North American average long products price over the next few months.

A reduction in selling values is forecast in the final quarter of 2007 for seasonal reasons as real demand slips. This should be followed in early 2008 by an upward price movement as construction picks up once again.                                                                                             02.07.2007

Source: MEPS - STEEL PRICES ON-LINE (regional steel price tables & forecasts)