WORLD AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICES - LATEST FORECASTS FROM MEPS

Sentiment across all manufacturing sectors has deteriorated further. The prospect of a modest revival in steel demand of flat products during the early part of 2009 has turned sour. Prices for all flat products are, therefore, forecast to decline in the near-term. Demand is expected to fall further as many end users struggle under current economic conditions. Sales to the automotive and construction sectors will be considerably down on last year. The anticipated decline in steelmakers' raw material costs for 2009 is also forecast to add further negative pressure to transaction values in all regions as buyers try to recover some of the mills' reduced costs. However, output cuts should help to stabilise transaction values during the second quarter of 2009.

We now believe that a revival in transaction values for all flat products will be delayed until the second half of this year. Government stimulus packages should begin to filter through to increased steel demand by the third quarter. However, only a modest price recovery is envisaged as customers continue to struggle with financial restrictions. Additional new capacity in China, due on stream in the summer, could damage any upturn in Asian selling figures.

As a result of the extended poor economic situation, transaction values for long products are forecast to decline until late spring time. Falling scrap costs, coupled with poor demand from the construction sector, are likely to reverse the previously anticipated upturn in selling figures. Weakening domestic currencies in the EU and Asia will also push prices lower when converted into US dollars. However, transaction values should begin to stabilise during the second quarter of 2009 as production curbs bring the supply-demand balance more into equilibrium. This should provide opportunities for steel prices to move upwards in the second half of 2009. However, end user consumption is likely to remain depressed throughout the year. Consequently, transaction values may not move to figures considerably above current levels before 2010.

Source: MEPS Steel Prices Online                        MEPS - World Stainless Steel Prices